Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 17.036976 20.630728 24.599723 29.281932 34.627166 40.511825 47.452075
2025-10-05 12.162325 16.932155 22.752495 30.258442 39.555301 50.564166 64.447692
2025-10-12 9.353161 14.579288 21.476892 30.986872 43.476821 59.031459 79.547079
2025-10-19 7.436216 12.824059 20.438542 31.542564 46.836642 66.656410 93.715913
2025-10-26 6.135109 11.604104 19.820064 32.396102 50.424198 74.562768 108.448303
2025-11-02 4.852714 10.107361 18.508699 31.999863 52.100109 79.856850 119.842112
2025-11-09 3.973829 9.066978 17.692825 32.153527 54.439232 86.042516 132.578210
2025-11-16 3.217733 8.062619 16.756363 31.956283 56.150464 91.327462 144.189368
2025-11-23 2.520242 6.992237 15.524855 31.104346 56.725688 94.913689 153.457058
2025-11-30 2.186354 6.586377 15.398552 32.034688 60.076673 102.651888 168.887159
2025-12-07 1.751756 5.838580 14.513595 31.543828 61.076137 106.864662 179.285719
2025-12-14 1.478132 5.395042 14.144305 31.904638 63.446392 113.209467 192.993198
2025-12-21 1.063182 4.468728 12.683860 30.198630 62.389623 114.446448 199.513561
2025-12-28 0.915784 4.241732 12.687275 31.275991 66.195162 123.546368 218.382683
2026-01-04 0.772164 3.970367 12.540204 32.028490 69.453822 131.881102 236.331877
2026-01-11 0.643092 3.691242 12.321376 32.598928 72.396177 139.791603 253.846311
2026-01-18 0.548094 3.491531 12.258747 33.474500 75.925784 148.779179 273.303905
2026-01-25 0.422603 3.101493 11.631026 33.068061 77.024139 153.728219 286.467375
2026-02-01 0.338951 2.837583 11.283556 33.225685 79.175296 160.505526 302.731602
2026-02-08 0.262230 2.549564 10.804460 33.023357 80.596063 166.055499 317.130864
2026-02-15 0.188410 2.206148 10.077214 32.149382 80.615972 169.144927 327.553065
2026-02-22 0.160428 2.115456 10.114550 33.103784 84.342889 178.854520 349.163684
2026-03-01 0.117016 1.868722 9.584595 32.600249 85.054392 183.216860 361.950380